At this project the effectiveness of different marketing acitivities and communication campaigns, of a fast-food retail chain at restaurant-level, on increasing daily net sales and total receipts count is assessed. Daily data is used and only fully operated restaurants from 2015-01-01 to 2016-12-31 are examined, resulting in a “same-store” analysis. Additional daily data that migh explain a lot of the response variables’ variation, such as weather data, sport events bank holidays and weekends, is also acquired.
A Spatial Panel Autoregressive Model with Fixed Effects that accounts for spatial dependencies between restaurants is proposed. Each advertising activity is modeled separately as an adstock variable for each Italian Province, capturing the provincial carryover effect of alternative media on consumers’ decisions. With the adstock variables defined at a Province-level, the Advertising Elasticities of each Province of the statistically and economically significant marketing activities, e.g. GRP TV and Euro Spent in other Offline Campaigns, are computed, underlining the effectiveness of different media in the short and long run. The proposed model provides the potential of capturing the effect of a change in a marketing activity on net sales and/or foot traffic of specific “target” restaurants. Therefore, a focused budget allocation can be implemented in order to improve individual performance of specific restaurants based on their location (Province).